tv Closing Bell CNBC February 8, 2013 3:00pm-4:00pm EST
next. hi, everybody. happy friday to you. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo at the new york stock exchange where they have stayed open despite the storm and the stock market. today is in a fight to the finish the week on the positive. bill? >> hey, maria, yeah. i'm bill griffith here at cnbc headquarters. let's face it, the market is doing better than the roads in this nor'easter so far this friday. here's what you have to think about. the dow has to finish higher by about 66 points for us to be up for the week. if not, this remarkably would be the first losing week for the dow this year so far, maria. >> yeah. it's been such a year. also today, we are, of course, following this storm as it continues to develop and intensify. there are worries about widespread power outages with these blizzard conditions. thousands of flights already cancelled. more than 3,000 in fact. likely many more to be cancelled. full coverage on the storm, plus we're speaking with the president of wse & g who is company is in the spotlight after handy.
>> very much so. look at one of the big winners so far today. apple. when was the last time we were able to say that. that company embroiled in a fight over its huge cash stockpile and investors seem to like it so far. up another 2% right now. we'll speaking with one of apple's biggest shareholders, and they are backing apple in this fight with david einhorn. that's coming up a little bit later. >> approaching the final stretch for the week. let's check out where we are on the markets here with the dow jones industrial average showing a gain, offof the best levels of the afternoon. gaining 41 points on the industrial average. 13,984, last trade on the blue chips. nasdaq looks like this. gains there as well, by the way. technology, one of the winners today and that's pretty steady throughout the session. up 27 points on nasdaq. 3193 even on the last trade on the nasdaq. s&p 500 touching a five-year high. take a look. up 7.66 point on the standard & poor's. will we or won't we end the week in the range? josh lipton with a look at the
markets and where we need to be less than an hour from now to make it official. >> maria, the big drama, will the major indices close up for the sixth week in a row, or will this be the first week of 2013 where the stocks finish in the red? at risk of failing here the dow. gains early in the session wiping out losses for the week. the dow right now, 13,984. break even for the dow would be 14,090. so the dow having a little -- blue chips having a little room to make up there. s&p 500, your benchmark, as it stands right now 1516. now break even for the s&p 500 on the week would be 1513. so, moving on. let's take one last check here of the nasdaq. tech heavy nasdaq at 3192, and break even for the nasdaq would be 3179. so with just a little less than one-hour left to the week, stay tuned.
maria, back to you. >> all right, josh. thank you so much. bill? >> let's keep an eye on this. even if the markets fall short of finishing higher for the week. it still seems stocks are bucking the growing chorus of those who have been predicting a pull back in. today's "closing bell" exchange kim foss from imperial wealth management and david lefkowicz and michael guyad and michael, you were a raging bulls for some time, but you've gone to bonds here. >> yeah, in terms of mutual funds in our separate accounts. if everything is okay, why is the ten-year treasury yield not rising above 2% in a definitive way? why are emerging markets like china weakening and germany, spain, falling, and why is junk debt showing real cracks here? there is this intermarket deterioration which i've been stressing in many of my writings which suggests that the conditions, just like a storm today, do not favor risk assets in the here and now and that we could see the beginning stages
of another deflation pulse in risk assets. >> but about the answer to all of that, isn't the answer to all of that the federal reserve. why would rates move higher substantially when we already know the federal reserve will keep rates in check at rock bottom levels until 2013. >> the fed is keeping interest rates on the treasury side low which junk debt which the fed is not controlling is showing signs of hesitation. looks like there's a credit spread widening starting. whether that metastasizes into something more serious we'll find out, but the point is the conditions are not favorable right now for risk assets. >> david, do you want to put money in these markets? >> just raised our price target to the s&p for 1500 for the next 12 months. moderate gains from here. we have the fed who is behind us. also have earnings season which is kind of winding down. earnings came in fairly good. we heard some relatively upbeat outlooks from -- from a lot of the different sectors, especially in the dec world and
if you look at the macro data we see the macro data suggesting an acceleration. look at isms and payrolls. i think the fundamentals are looking pretty good. >> you are among those that are cautious right now, aren't you? >> cautiously optimistic, but the reality is the s&p is up over 6 has year to date, and there's a lot of frustrated money on the sidelines waiting to buy on the weakness so the reality is i think that the market is going to go higher. i'm invested always on 44 different countries and 15,000 different stocks, so we're prepared for this, but you've got also the fear factor in there of the eurozone coming back. you've got bipartisan issues on the sidelines as well. the market doesn't want to pull back with those issues that will just kind of plug through it and assumes that there will be a fix to all those big issues of the sequester and such, so it's best to be in the market, in my
opinion. >> what changes this? i mean, is there something that -- that anybody on the panel thinks is most important to really focus on? is it the yields that you're looking at, michael, the ten year that perhaps could be a red flag? what is it going to take for any of you to believe, okay, we've seen the best. we have to start taking money off the table. >> take the cyclical trade needs to show signs of recovery. you are not seeing the right type of leadership in the marketplace. if this is going to be a globally growth-driven type move in equities, you need to see industrials continue to outperform and small caps, materials, energy, emerging markets. price-wise those have to leave the market higher. until that's the case and that's not been the case the last couple of weeks, every single move higher has been suspect. >> we're in this period here and you and i have talked about it this week about why the wields have not gone appreciably higher. but you have oil that's just
skyrocketing right now, especially gold stagnant right now. what are the markets all telling us now in your view? >> what's the message there? >> the wti brent spread has widened out rather dramatically. interest rates on the week are down seven. josh is right. if you look at interest rates you get a different picture but i'll tell you what, bill to. me it's the beginning of the year. the biggest banks have a very cozy relationship with hft and hedge funds giving them a lot of the leverage that they need, forgetting the retail equity traders. they are not lending to their traditional customers, and i think that is just the perfect blend. can markets go down in the interest rates and down in price and up in yield, even if the fed is buying? of course they can. >> right. >> any kind of exogenous outside glitch where market participants decide they want to get out, the fed wouldn't be able to stop that, but shy of that, i think the stencil is set for a while.
>> all right. rick, thanks so much. a market up 40 points here on the dow jones industrial average. what do you want to look at, guys, next week? kim, what's your take in terms of next week, what the big cat lifts are? >> you know, we're just looking to allocate towards the value sectors. we've up over 20% in our small value and up over 24% in our large value portfolios. looking for dips, maybe pullbacks. 500 days of straight up. want to look at the dips and put more money into the equity side of the market. >> the buy on the dip mentality, bill. >> as we sit here, the s&p and nasdaq are positive for the week. the dow is the laggard. even as you set a price target on the s&p for 1500 this year we don't have a correction in the meantime. >> certainly possible that we could, but when you look at the mix of what is supporting this
market. i think things are positive. the one thing that does make me a little bit nervous is at some point we'll be talking about a fed exit strategy. could begin to happen towards the middle of the year but the bond buying will be done at the beginning of the year, a very key transition period and we do co-see some digestion. >> even though we set a target of 2015 when they end quantitative easing. >> we think it's going to end towards the end of this year. >> that's a really good point. >> nobody is worried about this upcoming debate on sequestration, on the debt ceiling. you think that creates noise and disruption. >> i do, maria. i think that you've got a trifecta coming off, you've got the skywest raise and the debt ceiling and the eurozone so there's still a lot of volatility out there, so that's have we're cautiously optimistic. you need to be properly allocated in order to reap the rewards of the greatest capital
machine in the world which is our united states stock market. >> thanks, everybody. appreciate your time. >> we'll see you soon in the final stretch of trading. we've got a market that's higher on the dow jones industrial average. >> remember, the dow needs to be up 66 points or there abouts to be positive. don't look now but suddenly apple is up past $475 a share and it's all because big investors have a beef with the board. we'll talk to one major investor who is on apple's side in this battle. >> look outside new york city and our cnbc headquarters. it is bad and it's getting worse. the big worry now, power outages. believe it or not, there were gas lines last night. >> and a different kind of storm brewing in washington over the automatic cuts known as sequestration. today the white house came out with a forecast on what would
happen if they do kick in, and it makes the nor'easter look like a snow flurry. we'll separate fact from fiction on that later. stay with us. ♪ let's go. ♪ ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] introducing the all-new cadillac xts... another big night on the town, eh? ...and the return of life lived large. ♪ oh this is lame,
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shares of apple have been trading higher as the pressure is on for the company to use its huge pile of cash. seema modi has the latest on that story. >> that's right, bill. not just the recent decline in shares and the ho-hum announcements like the new ipad but their tendency to hoard cash, $187 billion to be exact. we took a poll and asked viewers to say what apple's most pressing issue was. product announcement got 56%. this started when hedge fund activist david einhorn came on the network saying he's dissatisfied and then the largest pension fund came out defending apple. apple is leading the nasdaq higher right now, up about 5% on the week. that's helping the nasdaq potentially close at a 12-year high. back to you. >> seema, thanks so much. as apple weighs its option, the
cash stockpile -- the showdown conditions. one corner, green light capital. david einhorn has been pushing apple to push a special class of stock to shareholders to help unluck more value in the company. >> the nation's largest public pension fund, the california employee retire system, they are taking apple's side on this issue and the head of that position is the head of corporate governance ann simpson. david einhorn says they need to do a better job of putting that cash to work and it should in some ways go to the shareholder in the form of that preferred stock he's talking about. why don't you support that? >> because here's the thing. having too much cash is a great problem. irish you is who gets to decide where that cash goes. now, we're backing apple because
in proposal two that will be voted on at the annual meeting, it will abolish the board's ability to just right blank check preferred stock. we don't think that's right. we think all shareholders should have to work. don't want the board cutting a deal on the side with the hedge fund out of fear of a lawsuit that will cancel the annual meeting. that's really short term. this is a big issue that needs to be thought through carefully and we want the board to come to all shareholders and give a chance to have their voice heard. >> what would you like to see in terms of shareholder friendly effort. what kind of action would you like to see? >> proposal two, the reason we support this. two good things are in this. first of all, shareholders for the first time will get a real vote on the board of directors. >> explain what that is very quickly. that's on apple's proxy for the annual shareholder meeting, called proposal two, the bone of contention for david einhorn as well.
give us 30 seconds on what that would do. >> correct. >> so, first of all, it means that the shareholders, all shareholders, not just few or a one, all shareholders will get the right for an up or down yes/no vote on the board of apple. that's for the first time going to be baked into the rules. that's terrific. that's all about accountability. secondly in this really good proposal that we support it means that the board can no longer issue preferred stork without coming coming back to all the shareholders. now what the hedge fund wants to do is use that existing provision which means the board can issue stock without coming to everyone. now, we think that disenfranchises all the shareholders. we have got over $1 billion in this company. there are many other shareholders long term, and they have the right to make this decision in our opinion, so if proposal 2 goose forward, the board can come forward with their plan. it may or may not include preferred stock.
buybacks, dividends, all sorts of options that need to be thought about, but, believes, given everyone the vote. >> what aboutinion's view limiting the preferred stock hinders the ability to unlock value for shareholders and what do you say to that? >> if the board cannot issue that preferred stock, get what, it becomes the decision of the shareholders which is where it belongs. shareholders provide capital. any changes to the capital structure, you should at least have the good manners to come back and ask the shareholders about the new arrangement. it's about democracy and shareholder rights. >> this struck a nerve with apple because they took the unusual step of addressing this publicly yesterday, and tim cook acknowledged that they are throwing off some enormous amount of money. i want to say $23 billion, a month in free cash flow. is that possible? >> that's aloud of money that's
sitting there not being put to work. don't they have some responsibility beyond just a new ipad or sng. >> what do you do with top of tash? it's a great question. apple said last year they would have a three-year plan to turn over $50 billion to shareholders. they have now been given a nudge to think more broadly about that. our question here is not on the detail of what, where, when and how, it's about who decides. that is shareholder right for the long term and all shareholders should participate in that vote. that's why we support proposal two which apple has put forward. >> is there ever a point that you think it's too much cash to sit on? i mean, you know, a lot of people, and this is beyond just apple, but some people say, look, at some point these companies are going to have a problem with this cash that they are sitting on, that they have to put it to work. why what would you like to see
apple do in terms of not sitting on so much cash? this is a lot of cash to be sitting on, and it's not making any money. >> what we want apple to do is develop the plan, carefully, thoughtfully for the long term, not in a haste and not in a rush, not as a knee jerk reaction. we want them to come back to all shareholders, not do a deal with one hedge fund. come back to everyone. put forward the plan for long-term value creation because we, as a pension fund, that's what we need. we don't need short term fixes. what we need is long-term plans, and we'll be ready to stand behind apple with that in mind. >> all right. we'll leave it there. good to have you on the program. >> thanks so much. >> my pleasure. >> appreciate your time and insights on this important topic. 40 minutes before the closing bell sounds on the day. 33 points higher on the dow. >> needs to be up 66 though to be positive for the week, so in case you didn't notice lately, but small cap stocks have been
leading this rally recently after underperforming last year. when we come back we'll find out whether the small caps can keep delivering big profits. >> also, a monster storm clamming into the northeast again. it's getting worse by the minute. the president of psg & e with more on their plan about if the lights go out on this storm. >> they have named this winter storm nemo, cnbc should be able to name rallies and selloffs, what do you k, >> i like that a lot. >> what should we call the rally of 2013 so far? tweet us your thoughts on what to name this rally. >> i know what i want to name it. >> hang on, hang on. send it to @cnbcclosing bell. we'll show you the best ones coming up. >> i'm going to tweet mine right now. i'll tweet it. >> good idea. >> you got it. >> we'll be right back. at rest.. while a body in motion tends to stay in motion. staying active can actually ease arthritis symptoms.
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you know, for all the talk of the s&p at 1500 and the dow at 14,000, the real winner so far this year have been the small caps. the russell 2000 has been hovering around all-time highs and today jpmorgan's top equity vat gist raised his price target for the russell 2000, so the question is should you still buy
the small caps, if they are at all-time highs or stick with the large-cap names in the s&p. >> let's talk numbers about that with j.c. o'hara with phoenix partners group and on the fundamental side steve cortes with vercruysse. j.c., which about the charts, which indices or which sector would you prefer right now? >> well, bill, i like all equities right now, small, medium and large. a lot of people say equities have gone too far too fast and they are overbought. we remaybe in a rights wedge formation and until you break lower you have to be long. it does not pay to bet against this rally. it continues higher. what's better than the s&p? well, right now small caps are better than the s&p. small caps already broke out of a multi-year ascending triangle, and basically what that is, it's heavy, heavy resistance that was recently penetrated in the 850, 860 area for the russell 2000.
strong resistance is a very strong asset to break through, and i don't want to stand in front of this bullet train. i think the momentum is positive and trends are positive and small caps will take us higher. >> steve? >> j.c. in, general the bigger guys one and i think the bigger guy will win in the bat of the index. i don't like the jpmorgan call for a couple of reap. first is the fact that as bill mentioned we're closing in all loc hood an all-time high. rallied 20% just since the election in november so in a three-month period had an incredible rise. i don't think this is the time. it was several weeks ago was the time to get bullish on the small caps and for the second reason and the more important one this issue of small caps versus large is really all about ale. the reason that we've seen such outperformance in the russ sell because it does not contain apple. the apple intense selling began in november, and since that time small caps have outperformed, but if you think apple is overdone to the downside and i do, i'm long apple, if you think
apple will recover from here you'll be much better served in long caps rather than small. >> everybody niece this has been an overly loved large-caporaly until recently. look at the performance of large caps and small caps off the neve lows. we've seen the small caps move 20% off the lows while the large caps move 12% or 13%. so pent-up demand. >> it's because of apple. that's the singular issue there. if you're wearish apple from here, yes, stick to small caps and bullish apple and you think it's overdone then i think you want to be in the big names. >> there you go. we'll let you folks at home decide. get home safe if you've got to get through the snow tonight. see you later. >> maria? >> in the final stretch of trading. 30 minutes before the closing bell sound for the day and we've got a market that's holding up. doesn't look like it will close positive. got to be up 66 points to close
positive on the week. >> the s&p and nasdaq positive for the week but the dow is the laggard. when we come back, we'll tell you which retail stocks could see a surge in sales from this storm and which could be put into a deep freeze. >> and check out these lines of people filling up their cars and their tanks and gas cans for their generatorgenerators. this is last night. not a flash back from sandy. has the public lost all confidence in the public utilities to deal with the storms? the president of psg & e will join us later on the "closing bell." tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and the streetsmart edge trading platform from charles schwab... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 gives me tools that help me find opportunities more easily. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can even access it from the cloud and trade on any computer. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and with schwab mobile, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can focus on trading anyplace, anytime. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 until i choose to focus on something else. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 all this with no trade minimums. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and only $8.95 a trade. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 open an account with a $50,000 deposit, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and get 6 months commission-free trades. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call 1-866-294-5412.
nor'easter nemo slamming into the northeast in what could end up being a record blizzard in many areas. jackie d'angelis is tracking the storm's latest movement. the weather channel's paul goodloe is in new york's times square and paul walsh is looking at the impact on stocks. jackie, kick us off. >> good afternoon, maria. standing outside our global headquarters just a little bit north of the george washington bridge where the mix has turned into an icy wintry mix, and we're starting to see a substantial amount of accumulation on the ground the
meantime new york city under a blizzard warning at the moment. forecasters saying that we can expect anywhere from 10 to 15 inches of snow, and as the day has progressed we have also seen travel disruptioned increase. we looked at amtrak recently. it has suspended its northbound regional lines and the acela service between boston and new york, and also looking at some of the flight cancellations. according to flightaware.com. the latest number, 4,630 flights have been cancelled from yesterday, today and also for tomorrow as airlines try to get ahead of this storm. and, of course, there's an economic impact as well, but some economists have told me it could end up being a wash. you see people buying more ahead of the storm to stock you. we could see a whiteout shutting retailers down tomorrow, but at the end of the day it should be about equal. back over to you. >> jackie, thanks very much. let's check in on how the storm is affecting new york city itself. the weather channel's paul goodloe is there in times square. paul? >> well, here we've had a
mixture of rain and snow. midday and around 2:00 we changed over to basically all snow here, and i had to check the latest observation. our pressure keeps dropping. that's a sign that this northeaster is getting closer and also getting stronger as it moves towards this way and i still see a lot of people out here in times square. a huge line at tkts and people are also shoveling. we have now on some of the side streets and some of the less traveled streets a slushy mixture of this heavy wet snow. that's what we've been dealing with most of the day. in fact, it was snowing this morning and then it mixed and changed over to rain and all snow. this is nothing. this nor'easter has yet to really rear its ugly head. it will do so over the next 12 hours or so, maybe 18 hours and the key is not just the heavy snow. it's the strong gusty winds. last hour we had a wind gust at laguardia at 44 miles per hour. we're expecting sustained winds perhaps in the 30 to 40-mile-per-hour range tonight and into tomorrow and when the
snow stops tomorrow the wind can blow it around. a long duration event. this is really, hate to use the pun, kind of the tip of the iceberg. this is nothing compared to what it will look like in four to six hours from now. 10 to 15, maybe even 18 inches of snow here in new york. not record-setting. the big snows up around boston. some areas around there could see two, to three feet of snow, the most snow they have seen since 2003 and also pretty close to the anniversary of the great blizzard of 1978 which also buried new york under more than a foot and a half of snow. bill? >> all right. paul, thanks very much. >> mar gentleman? >> the snow is really starting to pick up in new england. nbc's janel klein is in hartford with thattage. over to you, janel. >> reporter: very wet, heavy snow here. in fact, the governor of connecticut has already declared a state of emergenc statewide blizzard warning in connecticut as well, and we do expect, as paul goodloe was just
saying, that this storm will get a lot worse. this storm has gotten much more intense over the last couple of hours. snow coming down, as you can see, and the wind is starting to pick up. the governor is asking anyone who doesn't need to be on the roads to please stay home as we've seen major accidents on most of the state's high ways and freeways. travel has also been very difficult in the air. all of the flights out of bradley international airport here in hartford have been cancelled. bus and train service will be shut down in the next couple of hours and people at home having a difficult time with this as well. power outages a huge concern. wet heavy snow and wind gusts that could reach 50 to 60 miles per hour. we do expect a lot of power outages throughout the state. they are bringing in some extra repair people in anticipation of that happening, but as you know, when that wind picks up, those lines are really tough to repair, so as the governor is saying here in connecticut. we are preparing for the worst, hoping for the best. >> all right, janel, thank you
very much. stock prices starting to come down. dow starting to lose altitude here pulling further away from the level it needs to achieve to be positive for the week. we'll keep an eye on that in the last 20 minutes of trading or so. >> more on the impact on stocks. with us is the weather channel's paul walsh. i assume names like home depot and lowe's will be beneficiaries of the storm, a lot of people trying to get supplies that they need. >> typically ahead of a storm like this you get a surge in sales at both the home centers as well as the mass merchants. for this storm, similar to sandy, we had very long lead time so we've been talking about the storm since tuesday. that effect is then amplified by social media, and the fact is that this is the first storm in about two years so the impact of that surge is going to be greater than what it would normally be so the home centers will do really, really well. mass will do well. specialty department stores, all of those venues will be hurt by this because people will be
spending their money elsewhere and we'll lose a day tomorrow across a big part of the country, a big population center in the northeast. >> and put retailers, who loses out on that? who would you say are the biggest beneficiaries, paul? >> from a sector perfective, the biggest beneficiaries are the home centers to the extent that they can maintain their supply chains and make sure they have enough product. again, there's been a lot of warning about this storm and a lot of messaging around it, both within traditional media and social media has become a marketing vehicle in terms of creating buzz and generating the kind of messaging that people need really to be able to get ready and prepare for storms like this. >> they can use that to their advantage, but it can also work against them in some ways. social media, people will -- will say things about a company that can work against them as we head towards a storm, right? >> sure. there's always that sort of
downside, but just in terms of getting the word out and creating awareness about the storm coming, it sort of amplifies the message, and, again, the technology and the science around forecasting the weather is really getting better, and we're -- we're able to see these storms coming farther into the future, and so that generates more conversations which is, again, amplified by social which then for the home centers, for the mass merchants, for the grocers, all who are selling products that people need, it drives traffic into those stores, but then, of course, diverts them away from the non-necessary items being sold by the department stores and specialty retailers. >> people will stay home and buy stuff online. >> yeah, exactly. >> that's how that's going to work. paul, thanks very much. always good to see you. >> paul walsh joining us. >> it's a good thing you have your dogs and you've got your sled. >> get bela, the sled, my
husband. >> she will be mushing uptown. >> she doesn't like the snow. she doesn't like the snow or salt on her paws. did you get my tweet? >> hey, it's a good one. >> what should we call this rally? >> the weather channel is naming winter storms now calling this one theme oerg. we should be able to name rallies and maria has a great suggestion. tweet it to us here at cnbc "closing bell." we'll put some up with the dow up 19 points now. heading south as we head towards the close, paria. >> up next, many of you are skipping or leaving work early today. not the folks at the new york stock exchange. our bob pisani is up next on how they are handling this historic storm. >> sunday kicks off the year of the snake and the chinese zodiac. why should you care, you ask, because some banks are actually claiming this is very bad news for stocks and we'll explain later coming up on the "closing bell." i'm a busy guy. it used to be easier but now there are more choices than ever. i want to know exactly what i am investing in.
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it just happened on january 8, 1996, when a storm dumped 20 inches of snow on new york city. the floor closing at 2:00 p.m. that day. >> some traders thinking they might get an early dismissal today but no such luck. i can march the mood. >> every one of these guys all here, still working. wanted to go home four hours ago at 11:00 a.m. they have been wanting to go home but they are not. everybody is still here. the exchange is still open. nobody has gone home. they are all on a decent hard working professionals. they will also be fired if they left early but that's beside the point. boston, forget about it. all the boston traders never came to work today. there was a 2-07 trade to connecticut and they were all on it. the volume is 30% below normal. by and large the numbers have held up, drooping a bit going
into the close. dow looks to be just modestly negative right now, but the negative for the week, but i think the important thing is some of the economic data was pretty good. the trade numbers both for china and the united states generally supportive still in an expanding economy. guys, back to you. >> thank you so much. in the final few minutes. 15 minutes before the closing bell sounds for the day. the market up, 26 points. nasdaq on fire, 27 points on nasdaq. >> hanging on. apple leading the way there today. stocks fighting for the sixth straight week in the green but one top market pro who is here next says we're at highs and will not see these levels again for a long tile. he feels we're at a major top right now. we'll get his reasons coming up. what a week for blackberry. the stock up nearly 30% and it trades under that name for the first time and drops the rim mantle. too late to bid on this red hot stock? we've got the trade on blackberry coming up soon.
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pay attention, david. nice to see you. >> this is for you. >> look at this. >> look at that. >> that's a valentine for you, bill, so you pay attention, and maria, this is for you from your fans. your global fans, not me. i'm the carrier pigeon for your fans, maria. >> i like it. >> so sorry i wasn't there to receive that. so sorry i wasn't there to greet you this time around. you feel right now is the time that this market is setting a major top. tell us about it. >> some things that are very important that are happening in my work, bill. number one, there's an incredibly we liable and consistent cycle, 9,244 call -- days. let me give you the recent resolutions. march 5, 1937, an exact top in the middle of the 3242 bottom. went down for five more years. >> right. >> next resolution, june 26, 1962, very major bottom. we have never gone lower since then. next resolution, due calendar
day-wise october 17th. as you know, october 19th was the crash. the next market day, never gone below that. 9,244 days forward is february 6, 2013. this is now february 8. remember though the 17th. the date was saturday before the crash, two more days to the crash so you add two days to february 6. >> you're expecting a big decline. how significant? >> what i'm saying i expect a top of very much important. as far as the decline is concerned. if there is a major top. we could get ultimately a retest of the 2009 lows. >> i think you want to listen to the transportation stocks. i like the work that peter goss does. very, very solid and mathematically so he'sive. that having been said the transportation stocks, maria, the energy stocks and health care stocks, they have been doing very well. the underlying momentum of the economy, housing, retail sales, we'll get them next month, this
coming week on wednesday. the underlying tone of the economy, i think peter is either totally right or totally wrong. i used to teach. no half credit on peter here, and here is your valentine for cnbc today. >> thank you. >> and i want to say to all the men and women out here, if he or she says don't get me a valentine, they don't mean, it maria. they do not mean it. >> peter, let me get back to this. is there going to be a catalyst, you think, that sends this market lower. you're looking for the top in the next couple of days. is there a catalyst that you can point to. >> usually there's not. not a catalyst what. will happen is the market will start down and start to see new stories, a week, two, three, four, five later, people start to see things in the rear view mirror like they did in 2007. i here on the air in 2007 talking about that top and at that time the fundamentals looked great and everything
looks wonderful as they always do at market tops. >> just technical. >> basically 100% technical and click crawl. >> this is either a triple top, which is very negative or we break through to the upside, maria, which is very positive so we're coming down to a cusp, a tipping point here in the market. i think that's what peter is saying. >> david, you and your guys at morgan stanley wealth management there and add am parker, you've been pointing to the lack of fault of earnings that you've seen coming whumpt have you made so far of the fourth-quarter numbers we've been getting out here in the last few weeks? 60 pl 0 60% plus has been beating earnings. >> you've been on track for an 8% increase. so far it's 4.4%, including financial, bill, so you're on track. you've got to listen. you've got to listen to the underlying flow. very important is what the ceos are saying in terms of the
outlook for the coming year. so far that's been mixed. the big beats have been on earnings, bill. the revenues have not beaten as much, but you're right. 69% have beaten on earnings. a year ago it was 62% so there has been a better tone to this thing and watch that -- watch that, peter, either a triple top or we break through to the upside. >> one more major point to make, bill. sentiment. the sentiment is unbelievably bullish here. in the current survey of american association of active investment managers, they are the greatest bullish that they have been. in fact, on enchlg they are on leverage, first time in history. >> you don't like stocks here. is there something that you do like, cyclicals destined to move higher, gold or anything like that? >> there's always something. i like gold longer term. i don't think it's quite made its bottom, bill, but obviously something to invest and money has to go somewhere. that was my push back to you. if not the u.s. stock market,
then where? what are the alternatives if in fact this -- this materializes. what's the alternative? >> well, my outlook, maria, is that there's going to be a deflationary scenarios and if it's deflationary there's very few places to put your money. for the first time in a very, very long time, to everyone's surprise, cash may well be king. >> buy japan, maria. it's up 24% off its novello. we just put out a target 1,200, it's 940, 26% above this level. you think you can buy some japan. buy some defensive. there were stocks that went up even during the depression so you want to own your health care and your food and own your beverage and global gorillas that have exposure to the underlying global growth. that's where i think you can hide. master limited partnerships. you'll get yield. buy bce, bell canada enterprise is, the thing yields 5.2%, versus flat a year ago. >> thank you, guys. >> peter, i'll see you next time, and the next time you leave california, don't come
when there's a blizzard coming to town. >> you guys greeted me with that. wasn't my fault. >> have a good weekend. stay safe. >> since storms get names these days, why not rallies or selloffs, so we asked you, our twitter friends, what should we call the trooent rally. maria, what do you think here? >> well, j.j. is calling it the in spite of apple rally and my tweet is it's ben's rally. >> or just call it ben. >> one-word names, right. >> another one says we should call it the maria rally. markets are rallying in anticipation. one of my favorites was from peter barrett who said call it cliff. >> cliff. >> i like that one, too. >> good job. thank you, everybody, for tweeting in. what would you call this rally? >> bartiromo boom. >> what are you going to call this ral? >> the bitter end.
>> good ones from our set here. >> peter and david, thank you very much. >> we're coming back with the closing countdown for this friday. >> yeah. forget snowmageddon. the white house is warning of an economic apocalypse if congress doesn't stop the massive spending cuts kicking in march 1. will it real be that bad? poet sides of the debate next. come on, nowadays lots of people go by themselves.
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